By Jim Tompkins
CEO, Tompkins International
Black Friday is over 3 weeks away and retail sales are predicted to hit new highs this holiday season. Holiday 2015 will go down in the record books as a phenomenal success. Here are my top 15 reasons why:
- Holiday 2015 began earlier than ever before. Consider:
- Several retailers began promoting Holiday 2015 in July.
- Alibaba began promoting their 11/11 Shopping Festival on October 10th.
- Walmart began promoting Holiday 2015 on November 1st.
- Amazon began promoting Holiday 2015 on November 2nd.
- Holiday 2015 shopping began earlier, with 45% of shoppers starting before Halloween and 85% to start before Thanksgiving.
- Black Friday is no longer the big deal. It is now about Black November.
- Due to the earlier start of Holiday 2015 and less emphasis of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, sales for Holiday 2015 will be more consistent than the last 5 years.
- More than 25% of all US smart phone users will use their phone to purchase Holiday 2015 merchandise.
- More than 70% of all US consumers expect an omnichannel seamless experience for Holiday 2015.
- More than 50% of all Holiday 2015 shoppers who buy online will utilize "Click & Collect".
- More than 80% of all Holiday 2015 online sales will receive free shipping.
- More than 60% of all consumers hope they get gift cards for Holiday 2015.
- More than 60% of all Holiday 2015 shoppers will buy something for themselves.
- More than 50% of all retailers will come out of Holiday 2015 seeing online analytics, shipping velocity and personalization as tools to enhance their customer centricity and profitable growth going forward.
- The volume of Crossborder Commerce purchases for Holiday 2015 will hit record levels.
- Shipping volumes of eCommerce orders will hit record highs:
- More than 1 billion packages will be delivered in the US for Holiday 2015.
- Alibaba will deliver over 300 million packages for their one-day 11/11 festival.
- Although the National Retail Federation is projecting 3.7% increase in sales for Holiday 2015 over Holiday 2014, Tompkins International research projects this increase to be 4.2%.
- Although Alibaba does not project sales for their 11/11 Festival, Tompkins International believes the one-day total sales will blow past the $9.3 billion of 11/11/14 and exceed $11 billion on 11/11/15.
To learn more about Omnichannel, Customer Centricity, and Crossborder Commerce; and the secrets driving Amazon, Alibaba and Walmart for Holiday 2015 and beyond, see our just released video.