When Does Your Company Hit Economic Bottom? CEO Jim Tompkins Makes
Powerful Predictions

Bernanke's upbeat report supports a 'Great Comeback' fueled by consumers

Raleigh, NC, May 6, 2009 -- Business leaders are focusing too much on the timing of the macro bottom of the Great Recession instead of planning for the bottoms that have hit or will hit their companies.

"Ben Bernanke had it right yesterday when he told the Joint Economic Committee that the economy is beginning to bottom out and will turn upward later this year," says James A. Tompkins, Ph.D., CEO of the global supply chain firm Tompkins Associates. "This macro economic floor of the recession is an interesting concept, but it is not nearly as relevant to CEOs and their companies as the sector-by-sector recovery timing."

"Food, cosmetics, beverages, pharmaceuticals and inexpensive consumer electronics will hit bottom in the second quarter of 2009, and businesses in these industries are already behind if they do not have a "'Great Comeback Strategy,'" he adds. (See Graph: "Economic Performance of Industry Sectors Over Time" and Graph: "Recovery by Sectors")

Tompkins has done extensive research since the beginning of the economic downturn and has predicted exactly what is now occurring -- that the worst of the Great Recession is behind us and that recovery has begun in many industries. For the full data and conclusions, see Executive Briefing: The Great Recession Gives Way to the Great Comeback.

In the report, Tompkins notes that the comeback began with the return of consumer confidence and will be followed by investor confidence. It will occur first in North America, then Asia, and then Europe. However, the key to making the most of this economic recovery still lies in the individual company bottoms. "The bottom for some companies will be in the second quarter of 2009, for others it will be in the third and fourth quarters, and for others it will come about in 2010," he says.

Despite the good news of an impending comeback, a number of CEOs maintain a bunker mentality that places their companies and the marketplace at risk. "In a boom, there is a tendency for 'experts' to assume that the good times will last forever," says Tompkins. "And in a bust, there is a tendency to assume that the bad times will last forever. Of course neither is true."

What is true is that company leaders who develop a Great Comeback Plan now will grow their businesses and enjoy future prosperity

The Great Comeback: A 10-Part Blog Series.

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About Tompkins Associates
Tompkins Associates designs and integrates global end-to-end solutions for companies that embrace supply chain excellence. For more than 30 years, Tompkins has evolved with the marketplace to become the leading provider of global supply chain services, distribution operations consulting, technology implementation, material handling integration, and benchmarking and best practices. Headquartered in Raleigh, NC, the company is known for innovative, practical solutions that improve supply chain performance and produce value-based results. For more information, visit www.tompkinsinc.com. Subscribe to Tompkins Associates’ RSS feed for up-to-date information.