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Leading (Not Managing) Through Uncertainty Will Take
Your Organization to the Next Level
 In the August edition of Executive's Edge, I addressed some key concerns on the topic of uncertainty. Since that time, I have interacted with hundreds of business executives and learned that it is now very clear that "uncertainty is certain."
In fact, the Ph.D. engineer in me took hold -- so much so that I asked the Tompkins Supply Chain Consortium to conduct a survey and collect data on the subject.
Well, the results are just in, and my theory holds true. It is certain that executives see uncertainty as certain. Here are a few highlights of the survey:
- The larger the organization, the greater the uncertainty;
- The more global the organization, the greater the uncertainty;
- Supply chain processes that are impacted most by influences outside their organizations have greater uncertainty (forecasting, sourcing, sales, customer service and transportation) than processes that are more internally driven; and
- The government is a major source of uncertainty.
But I have to ask: Are companies addressing uncertainty, or are they simply obsessing over uncertainty? In fact, for many organizations, uncertainty is driving a degree of caution that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
These organizations are so hunkered down and have become so risk averse that they are blind to the opportunities that uncertainty in the marketplace presents. As I reflect on this, I cannot help but return to a topic I have studied for years: management vs. leadership.
The new conclusion I reach here is that "managing through uncertainty" will not provide positive results. In fact, it is the attempt to manage through uncertainty itself that begets a frustration that results in the caution that becomes the self-fulfilling prophecy of further uncertainty. (Bear with me here.)
This cycle of frustration-caution-uncertainty-frustration-caution-uncertainty does not allow a company to return to profitable growth. To the contrary, "leading through uncertainty" does provide positive results. The role of leadership here is to develop a compelling, realistic vision while pursuing organizational alignment, establishing clear action plans and accountability, and achieving profitable growth by overcoming uncertainty and moving your organization forward.
While leading through uncertainty does not eliminate doubt and worry, it does capture the potential of your competition's cautious approach and serves to return your organization to profitable growth.
Yes, uncertainty is still certain. But with the proper leadership, this uncertainty can be used to take your organization to the next level.
I wish you all happy holidays. Here's to leading through uncertainty in 2011!
Best regards,
James A. Tompkins, Ph.D.
CEO, Tompkins Associates
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